Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
